I want to make a rich web application. Ajax is out of question (too many horror stories). I want to choose 1 platform and stick with it. Requirements are:

1. Widespread install base (I guess Silverlight's already out!)
2. RAD. Need to write an app from inception fast.
3. Has a lot of third-party/free code available on the net.

BTW I'm a C++ Win32 developer, and I would definitely prefer Silverlight *if* it had a higher install base.

I'M ESPECIALLY LOOKING FOR INSIGHTS ON PEOPLE WHO HAVE FIRST HAND EXPERIENCE IMPLEMENTING ONE OR MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TECHNOLOGIES. Yea, I just yelled.

This is a great question for several reasons: the poster tells you why one of the technologies (AJAX) is not on the list (even if you disagree with the reason). He tells you about the criteria for choosing the platform. He gives you his background. Finally, he preempts any “evangelist” comments – do give advice if you’ve used one or more of the technologies above.

Unfortunately, the poster is in a “cheap, fast, good: pick two” situation. None of the technologies listed will satisfy all or even most of his requirements.

I was a C++ Win32 developer, just like him. I have used Java (for applets) and WPF (a bit of Silverlight). I only know what I’ve read about Flash. Here are my 2 euro cents…

Silverlight in its deployed version 1.0 (no CLR) is, for his needs, useless, regardless of the adoption. What he would most likely want is Silverlight 2.0 (CLR included), but that’s months away and then there’s the question of adoption and tools. Personally, I don’t think adoption is what he should be worried about, but that’s another story. Tools (RAD) should be fine for him as most will be integrated in Visual Studio where he should feel right at home. Third-party code will be scarce.

Flash has a great install base (anecdotally, around 90%). Tools appear to be very RAD. I don’t think there’s much third-party/free code available on the net as Flash is not so much about code. Mainly, as far as I can tell, the problem with Flash is the host language. It’s some kind of JavaScript mutant called ActionScript. It appears to be faster than JavaScript in the latest incarnation of Flash, but it’s still a script language. Him being an ex-C++ developer, I don’t see him using a script language and being productive with it. But that really is the only problem with the Flash.

Java has a widespread install base, but you never know which version users have installed. I’ve seen point releases of Java breaking applications and that is to me one of the biggest problems with Java. RAD is questionable (depends on your definition of RAD), but on the other hand if the applet is graphics intensive, he’ll be able to trivially transfer all the GDI/GDI+ knowledge accumulated over the years. There is a lot of third-party and even more free code on the net, so much that it might be a problem to pick which library to use, not to find if there’s one to suit his needs.

All in all, it’s tough for Win32 desktop developers trying to build RIA. Java feels great as a language (if you have C++ experience), but there are deployment issues and RAD aspect. Silverlight looks even better, but it’s not ready. Flash uses awkward script language. Let’s not forget that unlike Java which still uses rather traditional GUI concepts, both Flash and Silverlight are fully vector-enabled and use substantially different GUI concepts and this takes time getting used to.

My recommendation? If possible, wait for Silverlight. If not, go with Java.