There is a big problem in the software industry. It doesn’t matter if you’re building desktop apps, Web sites or SaaS; one of the biggest problems you’re facing is estimating how long it will take to develop features X, Y or Z. Software companies are infamously bad estimators. It has always been like this and pessimists think always will be.

Some do not agree though – I’ve recently read the most excellent book from Steve McConnell called Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Steve found enough data to support the claim that not all is lost and that there is a hope for the software industry after all. The book is highly recommended.

Anyway, today I’d like to draw your attention to a specific manager/developer interaction that is at the core of the estimation problem; it goes like this:

• Manager: “How long is it going to take to develop features X, Y and Z?”
• Developer: “3 months”
• Manager: “But we need it for the trade show due in two months!”
• Developer: “(thinking) God, if you’re out there, kill me, do it now…”

OK, there are business reasons why the company needs features presentable for the trade show. Does this somehow compress the time/space continuum? I don’t think so. Why does the manager’s tone sound like the developer is an equivalent of Hiro Nakamura (check out the TV series Heros if you’re lost on the analogy) and that the developer is somehow unreasonable with his 3 months estimate? Why does the manager usually expect the developer to deliver the same features for less time than is possible? Why is it expected from the developer to explain that if certain trade offs are implemented (less features, less quality/beta code etc) the deadline can be met and nothing is expected from the manager?

The situation reminds me a lot of something I heard from the then 3 year old daughter of a friend of mine. At the time of the event she was the only child and got all of the attention of both of the parents. It went more or less like this:

• Daughter: “Papa, I want this”
• Father: “Well, you can’t have it because… (explanation follows)”
• Daughter: “But I want it!”

Plain and simple – the child cannot recall being denied something. She gets what she wants and she gets it instantly. Therefore, it’s enough that she wants it!  It’s cute when kids pull stunts like this, but they don’t know better.

Shouldn’t the manager know better?